A Quick Thought On the Presidential Chances of Ron DeSantis

5 reasons I think the DeSantis bubble bursts.

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As an avid listener of National Review’s “The Editors” podcast, I can tell you that the Conservative establishment is putting all its eggs in Ron DeSantis's basket. Desperate to claw the Republican Party back from the crassness of Donald Trump, the Republican establishment has talked itself into believing that the Florida governor is the second coming of Christ Ronald Reagan. According to them, DeSantis will deliver hard-right policies while appearing “professional.”

Here are the 5 reasons I think that won’t happen.

1. DeSantis isn’t the political juggernaut he’s made out to be. He won the Florida Governorship in 2018 with 49.6% of the vote, squeaking by his Democrat opponent by about 33,000 votes. There were 21.25 million residents in Florida in 2018, meaning DeSantis won by .155% of the vote, making it the closest Gubernatorial race of the 2018 cycle. He won reelection handily in 2020, a point his supporters point to as evidence of his political dominance. But they conveniently omit that his opponent was Charlie Crist, the former Republican Governor of Florida. Needless to say, Democrats weren’t enthusiastic about choosing between two Republicans, leading many to stay home. Approximately 8.2 million ballots were cast in the 2018 race, compared to only 7.7 million in 2022. Over 67% of GOP voters turned out in 2022, compared to 52% of Democrats. All this is to say DeSantis won a very narrow victory in 2018 and was never in danger in 2020.

2. DeSantis lives in the very-online right-wing bubble. All of his policy issues are trivial culture war battles, the things no actual American cares about. His landmark legislation focuses on “what sports trans high school kids can play” and punishing Disney for “going woke.” Most Americans don’t care about these things and will be put off by them. Trump complimented his Conservative culture war with economic issues, something DeSantis doesn’t seem to be interested in doing.