Abandoning Trans Rights Could Cost Gavin Newsom The White House
The California Governor looks weak, not reasonable.
Since the election, liberal lawmakers and pundits have raced to distance themselves from their previous support for transgender Americans. Before the presidential votes had been certified, Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton told The New York Times he opposed trans people playing sports,1 and
signaled trans skepticism with his ‘Common Sense Democrats’ Manifesto hastily scribbled in his iPhone notes app, which he published and deleted from Twitter. Not to be outdone, California Governor Gavin Newsom launched the inaugural episode of his podcast by hosting Charlie Kirk, a leader of the Republican anti-trans crusade. Putting partisanship aside, Kirk and Newsom were able to cross the aisle and find common ground in the historic American pastime of vilifying a vulnerable minority. (And people say Washington is broken.)As all three of these figures had previously supported LGBTQ+ rights, the heel turn drew widespread criticism. The response, not just from the trio but from all corners of the liberal political class, was a timid justification that Democrats’ stance on trans people, specifically trans athletes, was out of touch with most Americans. This was best articulated by Congressman Seth Moulton, who told a Boston news outlet that trans advocacy was costing Democrats elections.
‘I stand by [my comments] because I'm just trying to raise the debate. I'm not saying I have all the answers on this. It's not my area of expertise. But this is an example of a contentious issue we must be willing to take on as a Democratic Party. First, we've got to start winning elections, and we're losing on issues like [trans issues]. And second, if we don't define the terms of the debate, then Trump and the extremist Republicans will define it for all the rest of us.’2
It’s true that Americans don’t want trans women playing in female sports leagues. An April NBC poll found that only 25% of respondents supported transgender athletic participation.3 While politicos see this as an indication they need to move right (which seems to be the only direction they go) what Newsom, Moulton, Yglesias, and the rest of the political class fail to understand is that Americans spend zero time thinking about the genitalia of their local junior varsity field hockey team. While turning against trans athletes might gain Democrats a few points in a focus test poll, it won’t result in more votes. In fact, it’s more likely to lose them, and not only from the queer community and their allies.
During the 2024 election, the Associated Press’ VoteCast surveyed voters to measure Americans’ political priorities. Trans people, never mind trans athletes, weren’t mentioned. At least not enough to be statistically significant.4 The issue also never arose in Pew and Gallup’s polls asking about top concerns earlier this year.56 The only somewhat-respected data firm I could find that hinted at transgenderism being a pressing issues was Statista. It was recorded as ‘LGBTQ+ Rights,’7 so I’d wager most of those respondents leaned more towards supporting queer folk than not. By all available data, issues relating to trans people simply aren’t Americans’ most pressing concerns. The notion that there’s a large swath of gettable, trans-skeptical voters Democrats can win over with a ‘moderate’ trans policy is a myth, born from defeatist panic, post-election excuses, and Washington D.C. groupthink.
So, if Americans don’t worry about trans athletes, why is it an issue? Because the Republican Party made it one. I’m no fan of the GOP, but they’re experts at playing the media, and by extension, the Democrats. After decades of losing on civil rights, Republicans learned the best way to thwart social progress is by misrepresenting the advancements of minorities as a loss for the majority. They no longer say, ‘Black people aren’t smart enough to get into Harvard,’ but ‘Affirmative action steals spots from Asian students.’ Unfortunately, reversing the victim and offender has worked well for conservatives, which is why their anti-trans attack focuses on alleged unfairness in women’s sports. By fixating on hyper-specific examples about the birth sex of athletes at the 2022 New Jersey volleyball championship, conservatives can present cis White girls as being ‘harmed’ by trans inclusion. Always looking to boost ratings, mainstream media eagerly presented the few hundred trans athletes as a political question on par with foreign and economic policy. To be fair, many Democrats did and continue to defend trans kids. But far too many, specifically those with higher ambitions, kowtowed, costing them in ways I doubt they’ll ever understand.
Last Tuesday, the California Interscholastic Federation ruled that ‘any biological female’ high school runner who ‘would have qualified’ for finals had one specific trans athlete not run, was now invited to the state-wide meet. Continuing his rightward pivot, Governor Gavin Newsom’s office praised the decision. In Newsom’s mind, doing so improved his 2028 presidential chances by showing the mythical undecided moderate voter that he’s a rational centrist they can turn to for sensible solutions. In reality, all Gavin Newsom has shown the voters he hopes to court is that he’s untrustworthy.
Back in 2004, Josh Marshall outlined the Slap Theory of politics. According to the theory, Republicans didn’t lie about Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry’s service record to convince voters he didn’t participate in the Vietnam War. They did so because they wanted to show Americans that, when attacked, the Democrat candidate couldn’t defend himself — and by extension, couldn’t defend them. Marshall wrote:
‘The best way to demonstrate someone’s lack of toughness or strength is to attack them and show they are either unwilling or unable to defend themselves. And that’s what is happening here. Someone who can’t or won’t defend themselves certainly isn’t someone you can depend upon to defend you.
Hitting someone and not having them hit back hurts the morale of that person’s supporters, buoys the confidence of your own backers (particularly if many tend toward an authoritarian mindset) and tends to make the person who’s receiving the hits into an object of contempt (even if also possibly also one of sympathy) in the eyes of the uncommitted.’8
This is precisely what Donald Trump and the Republican Party have done to Democrats and their media allies. They concocted a non-issue of transgender athletes (not unlike the Swift Boating of John Kerry), wound back their arm, and slapped Democrats right across the face with it. And how did Gavin Newsom, Seth Moulton, and the liberal punditry respond? Did they instill public confidence by defending themselves? Did they say, ‘I believe in trans rights as strongly as I believe in everyone’s rights. If the GOP want to come for my constituents, you’ll have to go through me!’? Did Gavin Newsom show voters that when the GOP target eventually lands on their backs, he’ll stand shoulder-to-shoulder and fight for them, even if it’s unpopular? Did Gavin Newsom show America he has a backbone? To echo Leonardo DiCaprio’s portrayal of Jordan Belfort:
By turning on trans folks, all the liberals have done is show the country they will fold under pressure. While Gavin Newsom thinks Americans hear his newfound anti-trans positions as a sign of reasonable moderation, what they actually hear is the California governor’s sniveling whimpers — ‘I’m so sorry Mr. Trump! I was wrong and you were right. I’ve changed now and I’ll do what you say. I promise. Please, PLEASE don’t slap me again!’
I believe we should support trans people on moral grounds. But even if you think that’s not worth the potential political cost (which I’m still not convinced exists) you have to admit Newsom’s current campaign to distance himself from the trans community is unlikely to work. Trump’s infamous 2024 ‘They/Them’ ad attacking Kamala Harris used footage of her supporting trans rights from 2019. It didn’t matter that she tempered her advocacy throughout her time as Vice President. Voters didn’t check the date of footage used in an political ad aired during Sunday Night Football and compare it against the last four years of statements from the Vice President’s office. And they’re not going to in the future. No matter what he says in 2025, it’s inevitable that Gavin Newsom’s future Republican opponent will use has past messages of queer solidarity to paint him as an out-of-touch California liberal. They’ll likely take the above photo of Newsom’s 2004 gay weddings and accuse him of ‘starting wokeness.’ As he’s already surrendered the narrative by admitting his LGBTQ+ advocacy went to far, Newsom won’t have a leg to stand on and will be knocked flat on his back. Not exactly what Americans want in a commander in chief.
If the governor continues justifying the coming Republican attacks by condemning his past self, he’ll have the worst of both worlds. The right will paint him as the Final Boss of Woke, the trans-allied left will resent him, and everyone else will seem his as weak. It’s impossible to predict what issues will dictate the November 4th, 2028 presidential election circled on the calendar hanging in the California Governor’s Mansion. But regardless of what it is, I don’t believe Gavin Newsom capitulating on one of his longest-held beliefs will instill confidence in voters that he has the strength to handle them.
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Further Reading
- is my go-to source on transgender issues, especially the anti-trans sports panic. Check out her work if you haven’t already.
Here’s a previous essay of mine explaining why I couldn’t care less if trans women have a competitive advantage over cis women. TLDR: Life isn’t fair and neither are sports. Stop crying and go practice.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/us/politics/democrats-kamala-harris.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/seth-moulton-trans-athletes-democrats/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-americans-oppose-trans-women-competing-female-sports-2-3-gen-z-rcna203658
https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/votecast/
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/02/20/americans-continue-to-view-several-economic-issues-as-top-national-problems/
https://news.gallup.com/poll/658910/worry-economy-healthcare-social-security-surges.aspx
https://www.statista.com/statistics/323380/public-opinion-on-the-most-important-problem-facing-the-us/
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/--97767
His treatment of homeless people along should cost him his entire political career.
"I believe we should support trans people on moral grounds. But even if you think that’s not worth the potential political cost (which I’m still not convinced exists) you have to admit Newsom’s current campaign to distance himself from the trans community is unlikely to work."
I think you really nailed it in the remainder of the paragraph, since no one cares about the timestamps. As someone who's much more moderate on this issue because I worry about the political costs (which, fair enough, are debatable), I am more than happy to see Newsom lose the nomination over this