There’s No “New Cold War”

Only media hysteria and nationalist fear mongering.

According to the Very Serious People in the political and media establishment, America is currently in a New Cold War. Campaign speeches and newspaper op-eds warn Americans that the country is facing a dire threat: China, which is… doing something. And whatever that is, Americans must stop them!

This New Cold War is news to the American citizenry, as it surely doesn’t feel like we’re embroiled in a global conflict of clashing hegemonies. Rather, the attempt to convince Americans we should panic about China (or any other foe of the American state) appears a lot like a Hollywood remake of an 80s classic. Despite the media hype, it fails to meet expectations. 

Haven’t You Heard? There’s A (Cold) War On!

Supposedly, you and I should fear The People’s Republic of China to a similar degree as our parents worried about the Soviet Union. Democrats and Republicans alike talk about the need to “contain” the Chinese Communist Party, and seldom is there a week in which establishment media doesn’t warn its audience about “the growing threat in East Asia.”

All of these were published over the last two months.

While these headlines are as prolific as they are provocative, the substance falls flat. There’s no there there. Once we mute the rhetoric and examine the reality, it’s obvious the United States and China don’t have any reasons to wage a New Cold War. The countries aren’t friendly, but the opposing incentives that created the first Cold War aren’t present. 

A Cold War Over What, Exactly?

The original Cold War divided the world into three camps:

1. The capitalist First World, led by the United States,

2. The socialist Second World, led by the Soviet Union, and

3. The Third World of unaffiliated nations. 

A Cold War map. The First World is in blue, The Second World is in red, and the Third World is in green.

While the victorious United States enjoys describing this conflict as a global battle between “democracy” and “authoritarian communism,” its historic actions reveal an ulterior motive. Throughout the 20^th-century, the U.S. supported anti-communist dictators (Franco in Spain, Park Chung Hee in Korea) and couped at least seventy governments (Chile, Iran), many of which were democratically elected. As with personal relationships, when it comes to foreign policy, actions speak louder than words. And America’s Cold War actions show that, despite its claim to be “supporting democracy,” it’s more accurate to view America’s mission as assisting the spread of international capital. Through this lens, we see that the original Cold War was not a battle between "communism and democracy” but one between capital and the forces that opposed it.

A Contra death squad, armed and funded by the United States to resist the Nicaraguan government.

Capitalism needs expansion. Capitalists always want more profit, and the easiest way to do so is to expand into a new market - i.e., find a developing nation and sell them your products. If a socialist or communist government came to power in one of these developing nations, it would significantly limit capitalist profit. The United States also subscribed to the Domino Theory, believing if one nation turned socialist, so would its neighbors. Therefore, while Ho Chi Minh redistributing land in Vietnam might go unnoticed in the ledgers of the world’s largest companies, all of Southeast Asia doing so would be an unacceptable loss. Hence, America spent a half-century ensuring capitalism could spread to every corner of the globe. It waged war in Vietnam and Cambodia, trained Osama bin Laden to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan, and conducted hundreds of other covert and overt military operations under the false banner of “democracy.”

American-backed soldiers captured during the failed Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in 1961.

The reason there is no New Cold War is because this dichotomy doesn’t exist today. China is not trying to combat international capital. While the nation is run by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), it’s not actually a communist country. At the CCP’s 19^th conference in 2018, the Party set a goal of achieving socialism by 2050. Obviously, this means China doesn’t yet recognize itself as socialist, a conclusion that is clear from a Marxist perspective.

Under Marxist thought, socialism is the successor to capitalism, coming only after capitalism has created an industrial base that can be run collectively. As the Chinese Revolution occurred when China was still a largely agrarian, pre-capitalist nation, it doesn’t have the industrial base necessary for socialism. So, while the country is led by socialists who seek to enact that vision, they recognize the necessity for capitalist elements. You’ve seen these capitalist elements materialize on the bottom of your consumer goods, many of which are stamped MADE IN CHINA.

The 19th CCP Congress in 2018.

In 1978, Deng Xiaoping instituted an “Open Door Policy,” allowing foreign investment in designated areas in the country’s south. In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization, and it continues to court foreign capital to this day. Unsurprisingly, much of this capital comes from America. Excluding Mexico and Canada, which enjoy low-tariff trade, China is the largest importer of American goods. According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, China imported $150.4 billion in American goods in 2022. For comparison, Japan and the United Kingdom (the fourth and fifth largest importers of American goods) imported a combined $156.2 billion. That means China received almost as much American production as the next two allies put together. 

America’s largest trading partners by import and export, 2020. (Source)

But that’s not even the kicker. 

In addition to receiving a gargantuan amount of American goods, China is the largest supplier of goods to the United States. 16.5% of America’s imports, totaling $536.3 billion, come from the People’s Republic of China. Comparatively, during the height of the Cold War the United States delivered 1.5% of its exports to the Soviet Union and obtained only .2% of its imports. The financial relationship between the U.S.S.R. and America was negligible, while the one between contemporary America and China is crucial. If this commercial relationship was to be severed by a “New Cold War,” daily life in both countries would be upended. 

As it is actively courting capitalist investment in its mainland, it is ridiculous to say China is trying to prevent American capital from expanding globally. In fact, the actual existing conflict is between American and Chinese capital. While there was a lot of talk about needing to ban TikTok to “stop Chinese propaganda,” the true reason Congress moved against the app is that Meta lobbied them to, hoping former TikTok users would return to Instagram. That’s a conflict, but it’s hardly one that will cause a global shadow war between the armies of ByteDance and Meta Inc.

In my opinion, China is currently a state-capitalist nation run by a party attempting socialism. I hope they succeed, but both CCP leaders and I agree that China is not yet socialist. As it has admittedly not achieved socialism and is welcoming American capital, the notion that a Cold War is being waged between China and the United States is little more than nationalist propaganda designed to sell newspapers and rally Americans around the flag. 

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