Analilia Mejia outperforms Kamala Harris won by 13 points. Graham Platner destroys a sitting Democratic governor. The left is proving its critics wrong.
Really great, granular look at the Meija win. Unfortunately, I think the current Democratic establishment would rather lead a major party that is out of power than hand over the reins to progressives (especially critics of war/Zionism) and see them win. Being the leaders of an out of power major party is not a bad gig.
Thanks for your analysis. I think you made a good argument that being pro-Medicare for All, strongly anti ICE, and critical of Israel is popular or at least not too unpopular.
Where I disagree quite strongly is the generalization to progressive, left-wing beliefs in general. The policies you cited are specifically some of the left's strongest on the populist front: people want healthcare change, distrust ICE, and distrust data centers and AI. The most notable progressive plank there is pro-Palestinian sentiment, and it is revealing that this may be less toxic than it was in the spring of 2023.
What is notably missing from your analysis of Mejia's win are the majority of the unpopular social justice, anti-racism, anti-transphobia platforms of progressives that genuinely are unpopular among a lot of voters.
Additionally, +13 over Harris is not actually impressive when compared to Democrat overperformance in other recent special elections.
To summarize my view, I don't disagree that more progressive candidates can outperform more centrist candidates. However, I also think that centrist candidates can outperform progressives. I think some progressive policies are good, popular ideas, while others are bad, unpopular ideas (to oversimplify). And I think the same is true of centrist positions—corporatist status-quo policies are deeply unpopular, but abundance-focused YIMBY-type regulatory decluttering is both relatively popular and a good idea. What I want (and what I suspect voters want) are optimistic representatives who try new things and achieve seem likely to achieve tangible results.
You know who’s to blame for Trump? The pieces of shit who voted for him. Too many people on our side let Trumpers off the hook - “they didn’t know any better” or “they were misled” - while fighting amongst themselves. If you’re more pissed at your own side than the opposition, you’re part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Just wish Platner… you know
The centrists are going to be frantic soon thank you for writing
Really great, granular look at the Meija win. Unfortunately, I think the current Democratic establishment would rather lead a major party that is out of power than hand over the reins to progressives (especially critics of war/Zionism) and see them win. Being the leaders of an out of power major party is not a bad gig.
Hi Joe,
Thanks for your analysis. I think you made a good argument that being pro-Medicare for All, strongly anti ICE, and critical of Israel is popular or at least not too unpopular.
Where I disagree quite strongly is the generalization to progressive, left-wing beliefs in general. The policies you cited are specifically some of the left's strongest on the populist front: people want healthcare change, distrust ICE, and distrust data centers and AI. The most notable progressive plank there is pro-Palestinian sentiment, and it is revealing that this may be less toxic than it was in the spring of 2023.
What is notably missing from your analysis of Mejia's win are the majority of the unpopular social justice, anti-racism, anti-transphobia platforms of progressives that genuinely are unpopular among a lot of voters.
Additionally, +13 over Harris is not actually impressive when compared to Democrat overperformance in other recent special elections.
To summarize my view, I don't disagree that more progressive candidates can outperform more centrist candidates. However, I also think that centrist candidates can outperform progressives. I think some progressive policies are good, popular ideas, while others are bad, unpopular ideas (to oversimplify). And I think the same is true of centrist positions—corporatist status-quo policies are deeply unpopular, but abundance-focused YIMBY-type regulatory decluttering is both relatively popular and a good idea. What I want (and what I suspect voters want) are optimistic representatives who try new things and achieve seem likely to achieve tangible results.
You know who’s to blame for Trump? The pieces of shit who voted for him. Too many people on our side let Trumpers off the hook - “they didn’t know any better” or “they were misled” - while fighting amongst themselves. If you’re more pissed at your own side than the opposition, you’re part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Don’t underestimate how much the NJ vote was a backlash against Trump & ICE too. The Rs lost a lot of Latino voters in the past year.