The GOP Will Try to Steal The 2024 Election by Recreating Bush v. Gore.

Republicans have spent the last year planting landmines to get the election to the NewsMax-watching Supreme Court.

As the election nears, the potential for a second Trump-led coup attempt is top of mind for many Americans. A recent poll found that over half of voters felt Donald Trump was a threat to democracy,¹ likely fearing he would try January 6^th Part II: Electric Boogaloo Bois. While I share those concerns, I do not believe Trump’s struggle to grab power (and to keep himself out of prison) will be spearheaded by a flag-waving mob. Instead, it will come from an equally as vile but more “respectable” form of election tampering, the United States Supreme Court.

Why am I confident that the 2024 election will likely become a legal coup? Well, for one, the GOP has spent the past year planting legal landmines into the already-frail election system, hoping one will explode into a convoluted court case that hands Trump the Presidency. Second, unlike January 6th, lawfare has precedent as the only successful way the Republican Party has stolen a Presidential Election.

Duly protests outside the Supreme Court during Bush v. Gore (2000).

Bush v. Gore

Following the 2000 election, the Supreme Court delivered the most outlandish, explicitly partisan decision in modern history. On December 8^th, 2000, following a peculiar voting pattern in the Sunshine State, Al Gore asked the Florida Supreme Court to recount 9,000 contested ballots and 61,000 “undervotes,” ballots that did not cast a vote for President. Florida’s electoral college votes had been given to Bush, which swayed the razor-thin race. Gore suspected these under ballots were uncounted votes for him due to a malfunction in Florida’s punch-card voting machines. Years later, The Florida Ballot Project confirmed Gore was correct. He would have won the presidency had Florida’s votes been properly counted.²

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Following Gore’s request, Bush sued, and Justice Antonin Scalia convinced his lifetime coworkers to order a stay, ordering Florida to stop counting ballots. Scalia reasoned that an honest recount could “irreparably harm George W. Bush” with a “needless and unjustified cloud” over his legitimacy. Justice John Paul Stevens responded, “Counting every legally cast vote cannot constitute irreparable harm.” 1-0 Stevens.

After two days of oral arguments, the Supreme Court ruled in a 5-4 per curiam decision (the court writes one opinion for all justices) that Florida’s recount was “unconstitutional.” Citing the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment, the conservative justices claimed “there wasn’t enough time” to do a “constitutional” recount. So, the Supreme Court ordered the state of Florida to stop counting votes, handing the Presidency to George W. Bush, who had been announced as the “winner.” Only a conservative could twist an amendment giving formerly enslaved persons citizenship into a justification not to count votes in a former slave state.

In a further “what are you going to do about it” smack in the face to the liberal justices, the conservative majority wrote that Bush v. Gore had no precedent—it only applied to this case, a nifty protection that meant a Democratic candidate couldn’t benefit from this rationale in a future election. Neat.

Florida election officials check a punch-card ballot during the state’s short-lived recount.

While ideological preferences were one reason the conservatives appointed George Commander in Chief, the intricate web of personal connections and interests — which exist for Donald Tump in 2024 — cannot be ignored. All five justices who ruled for Bush were appointed by one of his father’s administrations. Justices Rehnquist, Kennedy, Scalia, and O’Connor were appointed by President Ronald Reagan while George H.W. Bush was Vice President, while rightist sugar-baby Clarence Thomas was appointed by President H.W Bush himself. Additionally, George W. Bush’s brother, Jeb Bush, was the governor of Florida at the time. Jeb wasted no time making sure the Court’s “stop counting” order was implemented before anyone can utter a protest. But even more alarming, in both the 2000 election and the one two weeks from now, is the GOP candidate’s connection to conservative media. As expected, Fox News was the first to call Florida for George Bush, at 2:16 a.m. Not wanting to be outdone, NBC, CBS, CNN, and ABC affirmed the call within five minutes, creating the impression Bush had “won” the Presidency. Within two hours they had to retract the ruling, but the idea that Bush had won the election, which had been the basis for Scalia’s “irreparable harm” argument, was in the public mind. Why is this controversial? Well, because Fox New’s Election Night decision desk was run by John Ellis, cousin to George W. Bush. Ellis had been on the phone with Jeb Bush and George Bush all night, providing vote counts and minute-by-minute updates.³

To recap, George Bush’s cousin called the election for him, Supreme Court Justices appointed by his father ruled for him, and his brother cracked down on any attempt to accurately count votes in the state he governed. It must be nice to have friends in high places.

George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Jeb.

While some still claim Bush v. Gore was rightfully decided, any notion of impartiality and honest interpretation of the constitution was destroyed by Scalia’s 2009 comments to journalist Jeffrey Toobin. Speaking on the record for Toobin’s book The Nine, Scalia said he acted on Bush v. Gore because:

“We had to do something [in Bush v. Gore] because countries were laughing at us. France was laughing at us.” — Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia

“We” (the Supreme Court) “had to do something” (override democracy and hand the Presidency to our former boss’s son) “because countries were laughing at us.” You see, folks, the democratic principles America constantly brags about are all good and fun, but the second a French cartoonist ridicules us in a small-town newspaper, it’s time for the unelected Harry Potter impersonators to step in and anoint their favorite guy to be President. 

In seriousness, Scalia’s quote lays out the actual ideology behind conservative judicial activism. Given the opportunity, the Republican Party will kick up enough dust, claim the mantle of democracy, and raise enough “legal” objections that the average American can’t follow along. Then, under the false belief that it is a “apolitical,” truth-seeking institution, the Supreme Court decrees, “Actually, the Constitution says whatever is on this year’s Republican Party platform. And you can’t challenge us because we said so.” While the violent mob of a January 6^th takeover was doomed to fail, this strategy has worked well for the GOP. Given that the current Supreme Court shares the ideology of federal inmate Steve Bannon, we should be on high-alert for the Trump legal coup. Unfortunately, it’s already underway.

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2024

While the Harris campaign has adopted the messaging that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy, I find their focus misguided. Yes, the violent images of a fascist mob storming the capital on January 6^th make great ads, but that’s not where my concerns lie. The conservative establishment would not be comfortable seizing power in such a way, not because it’s less likely to work than a judicial coup, but because it offends their notions that they are “protecting” the United States from the Stalinist communism of Kamala Harris (*sarcasm). Bloody cops and the image of buffoons wearing Bison horns just doesn’t sit well with the rightist intelligentsia, even if its the inevitable outcome of their politics.

Additionally, we must recognize that Donald Trump is a symptom of the conservative movement, not an aberration. There are only so many “immigrants are bad for America” columns National Review can write before the audience will welcome someone who finally says the racist part out loud. Not only is the Supreme Court the source of the GOP’s one successful coup, but it’s stacked with NewsMax-watching uncles who “moved mountains” to grant Trump immunity from being prosecuted for his role in January 6^th. Clarence Thomas, Sam Alito, and John Roberts have spent the last year waving like an open receiver, begging the GOP to do whatever it needs to get the election into their hands. And by all accounts, the GOP is more than willing to throw them the ball.

The “moderate” Chief Justice John Roberts.

(Note: After I published, a reader informed me that current Justices Coney-Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Chief Justice John Roberts had assisted Bush’s legal campaign⁴ while in private practice. Bush rewarded both Roberts and Kavanaugh with high-profile judicial posts. Very concerning.)

While the presumed GOP coup will end with the Supreme Court, it will start with Republican-controlled state legislatures making a lot of hay about “illegal” votes, supposed election machine rigging, and whatever else their crackpot strategist come up with. While the seeds will be planted by the Fox News crazies, they will be nurtured by the “respectable” conservative voices. The Wall Street Journal will report voting patterns are “concerning” while National Review will quote to a 15th-century English king as reason entire Arizona precincts should have their tallies nullified. Republicans have already filed 130 lawsuits designed to gum up the election process, including trying to force Georgia to hand-count every ballot.⁵ In what might be a self-defeating move, Trump had the RNC dedicate millions to an “Election Integrity Committee,” which appears to have come at the cost of voter turnout.⁶ Make no mistake, this committee, the lawsuits, and other bullshit “integrity” moves are purposely designed to deny Harris an election-night victory, delay ballot counting, and find a way to get the case to the Supreme Court, where conservative justices looking to retire will hand the nuclear codes to the Republican’s Special Boy. Just like Bush used his cousin in 2000, this effort will be abetted by Trump’s Fox News friends, who tried to throw the 2020 election into doubt with claims of “rigged” Dominion voting machines.

Donald Trump appointed three Justices, who will surely not recuse themselves in this case.

I don’t mean to downplay the threat of street-level violence from fascist, Trump-aligned gangs. That is a very real possibility. Personally, I view Trump’s head-scratching decision to campaign in solid blue states (New York, Colorado, California) as an attempt to whip up these groups, so they are “standing by” (Trump’s words) if he can muster a nation-wide attack on voting locations. That said, while fixating on January 6^th is likely a viable campaign strategy for the Harris, I hope they recognize that the real threat comes not from a raging riot but from the unelected Ivy League branch of government. As the conservative justices have made painfully clear, they share the beliefs and goals of the Proud Boys, but will implement their reactionary politics in a way more palatable — but equally fascist — way.

The upside-down American flag and the “Appeal to Reason” flags flown at Alito’s home. Both are signs of solidarity with the January 6th rioters.

While many correctly point out that the electoral system is already rigged, perpetually offering us to choose between the capitalists who will permit us control of our bodies and those who will not, I firmly believe that no matter who wins, the democratic will of the American people must be defended. At this moment, the working class has very little say in politics. Study after study has found American political outcomes are dictated by money rather than the popular will. However, that is not a reason to surrender what little right we have in our bourgeoisie government. My aim, as I hope it is yours, is to build a truly democratic world, one that gives everyone a equal voice in the forces that dictate their lives, both political and economic. That goal will only be further from our reach if we roll over and let the ruling class cheat on what little power many working-class people died for us to have.

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1. https://politics.georgetown.edu/2024/03/21/new-poll-81-of-voters-believe-democracy-is-threatened/

2. https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/12/us/examining-vote-method-consortium-organizations-conducted-ballot-review.html

3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/2000/11/14/bush-cousin-made-florida-vote-call-for-fox-news/68c8b308-d61e-460f-a4d8-f98371aeab5f/

4. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics/bush-v-gore-barrett-kavanaugh-roberts-supreme-court/index.html

5. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/georgia-judge-blocks-rule-requiring-counties-hand-count-ballots-rcna175632

6. https://gop.com/press-release/trump-campaign-and-rnc-unveil-historic-100000-person-strong-election-integrity-program/