The Ukraine Blowback Begins

Nukes, fascist militias, Russian occupation, coup threats, and an arsenal of American weapons. What could go wrong?

There’s no mystery behind Friday’s Oval Office meltdown. Donald Trump likes Putin and wants him to win the Russia-Ukraine War. He can’t just cut military support without political backlash, so he tried to make Ukrainian President Zelenskyy look like the unreasonable party in the U.S.-Ukraine relationship. Brought back from public exile to babysit the senile president, J.D. Vance whined about Zelenskyy’s lack of gratitude in between Trump’s tirades on Russiagate, Hunter Biden’s laptop, and whatever else angers Fox News grandpas these days.

For Trump world, the ambush went as planned. Conservative media has aggressively pushed the narrative, and hours after the Oval Office meeting, Zelenskyy appeared on Bret Baier’s show where the host repeatedly urged the Ukrainian President to apologize to Trump. (U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer also appeared on Baier’s show after meeting Trump, as heads of state know it’s another chance to communicate with the TV-obsessed president.) Republican politicians followed their marching orders to the letter, immediately calling on Zelenskyy to resign.

“What I want [Zelenskyy] to do is just to say, ‘I screwed up big time for my country and for the U.S. relationship and if I had to do it over again, I’d have done it differently and I’m sorry.’ If he can’t say that, then Ukraine, you need to either send us somebody new we can deal with or just accept the consequences.” — Senator Lindsey Graham¹

While Zelenskyy hasn’t apologized, he attempted to mend fences with Trump. Over the weekend, his Twitter account relentlessly thanked America and European allies, and Zelenskyy himself said he’s still willing to sign Trump’s proposed mineral deal. That “deal” is little more than a political ploy by Trump, as it would take at least eighteen years to build a mine in Ukraine under peacetime conditions, never mind the country’s current state. There’s also no guarantee there are profitable mineral reserves in Ukraine, as the latest survey was done by the Soviet Union using now-outdated methods.² Zelenskyy knows this, so his openness to Trump’s offer shows he’s willing to placate Trump on select issues to keep the American weapons shipments coming.

Unfortunately for Zelenskyy, Trump announced he suspended military shipments to Ukraine late Monday night.³ Regardless of whether the pause is temporary or permanent, it’s clear that America’s involvement in Ukraine is going to become yet another case of blowback: the unintended consequences and side-effects of military operations, which can magnify or exceed the problems the United States wanted to solve in the first place.

While I fully support Ukraine’s right to defend itself against the Russian invasion, I’ve always been skeptical of American military participation in the conflict. As I wrote back in 2022, history shows that America’s military-industrial complex often harms beleaguered nations more than it helps them. Despite the claims of “spreading the seeds of democracy,” America doesn’t invade countries or arm allies because it believes in “democracy” or “freedom.” It does so because those allies align with Uncle Sam’s geopolitical interests at that particular moment. What Washington repeatedly fails to remember is that conflict is chaos. Political goals shift as fast as battle lines. You can hand someone a gun on Monday, and by Friday, they’re shooting at you. In 1988, America was identifying targets for Saddam Hussein to gas during the Iran-Iraq War.⁴ Two years later, the Iraqi Army was using those U.S.-provided weapons against American troops during the Gulf War. Not only do rapid changes create bizarre situations, but America’s modus operandi of “arm and forget” leaves contingents of weaponized, trained, and uncontrollable fighting forces in volatile and violent regions. You don’t need to be a general to know that’s a recipe for disaster.

A tangled web of American military supply is how a Texas plumbers’ truck ended up as an ISIS combat vehicle in 2013.

Recent memory shows how these situations unfold. During the Soviet-Afghan War, America poured extremist Islamist ideology and advanced weaponry into Afghanistan through Saudi Arabian and Pakistani intelligence.⁵ Most of the armaments fell into the hands of the Mujahideen, who were the most aggressive anti-Soviet militants. When the Soviets withdrew a decade later, American guns and Wahhabism, Saudi Arabia’s strict Islamist political ideology, remained. The country fell into sectarian war and gun violence, culminating with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 1996.⁶ Radical Islamists weren’t the most numerous group during the Afghan civil war, but because they had led the fight against the Soviets, they were best-positioned to come out on top. As you likely remember, when America surrendered to the Taliban and ended its two-decade-long occupation of Afghanistan in 2021, ISIS suicide bombers killed 183 people at the Kabul airport. A terrorist group created out of America’s invasion of Iraq coming back to bite at the end of a different illegal war is cosmic irony cloaked in the blood of innocents.

A 2002 Washington Post article detailing how U.S.-provided Wahhabist textbooks were creating problems for the American occupation.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, those who warned that American involvement could turn Eastern Europe into another hotbed of political extremism were condemned as Russian propagandists (myself included). It was a bizarre accusation, as those fears were shared by Obama, who denied Ukraine’s request for offensive armaments in 2014.⁷ In 2017, Donald Trump reversed this policy and sent Javelin missiles to help the Ukrainian army fight Russian special forces and Kremlin-backed separatists in Crimea.⁸ Biden continued Trump’s policy, delivering fifty-six weapons packages to Ukraine for a combined worth of over $65 billion during the course of his presidency.⁹ For comparison, Reagan and Carter sent approximately $3 billion to the Mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War, or about $11.5 billion adjusted for inflation.¹⁰ That means the Trump-Biden presidencies have given Ukraine over five times the amount of weaponry American gave to the Mujahideen. As expected, the most militant and unsavory facets of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the country’s infamous Neo-Nazi militias, now control large swaths of this stockpile.

A now-deleted NATO tweet included a female soldier wearing the Black Sun, a symbol of Neo Nazi and White Supremacist groups.

While Putin’s justification that he needed to “de-Nazify” Ukraine was bogus (Zelenskyy is Jewish, and Putin’s mercenary army is named after Hitler’s favorite composer), it’s not “Russian propaganda” to be worried that fascist armies are now armed to the teeth and can blow up commercial airplanes. The most prominent Nazi-linked group, the Azov Battalion, has seen its ranks swell during the war. Upper estimates put membership around 7,000, up from the pre-2022 levels of 2,500.¹¹ Azov is popular amongst the Ukrainian people, as is expected of any force standing between civilians and invaders. While initially an oligarch-backed militia that rose to prominence during the Crimea invasion, Azov has since been incorporated into the National Guard of Ukraine. There, it has access to all the powerful weaponry distributed by the United States.¹² While the Biden Administration previously put weapons restrictions on the Neo-Nazi group due to human rights violations, it lifted them in June of last year.¹³ That said, it’s silly to think the Ukrainian Army was honoring those restrictions even when they were in place. The below video of an Azov soldier firing an American Javelin missile at a Russian tank was uploaded to Telegram in August of 2022.

Arming Azov is a clear violation of U.S. law, which prevents support for military units that commit human rights violations. The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights formally accused Azov of war crimes in 2016, including rape and torture.¹⁴ However, the State Department found “no evidence” of such violations and approved the 2024 weapons transfers, much like it ignores Israeli war crimes and continues to arm the IDF. As the old saying goes, “For my friends, everything. For my enemies, the rules-based international order.”

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However, perhaps the most troubling aspect is that Azov has claimed it plans to “bring the fight to Kiev” after defeating the Russians.¹⁵ I don’t need to dwell on what would happen if a Neo-Nazi militia, armed with American missiles, rifles, and tanks decided their real battle was with the Jewish president in Ukraine’s capital. Now that Trump has ended military assistance for Ukraine, factionalism and infighting could arise. It’s not unreasonable to think Azov (or any other battalion) could emulate their Wagner Group enemies, turning their guns west and marching on Kiev to “save Ukraine.”

Zelenskyy poses with Azov commanders following a 2023 prisoner exchange.

While uncontrollable armed extremist groups draw a clear parallel to Afghanistan, other troubling scenarios could manifest in Ukraine. Russia currently controls about 20% of the internationally recognized Ukrainian territory. Following an uneasy ceasefire agreement, this conflict zone could take any form. It might decay into guerrilla warfare, or become a North/South Korea-style hard border with periodic shelling and nuclear scares. Russia, Azov, or any other powerful group could attempt to solidify “their” territory by displacing ethnic, religious, or national minorities that would challenge their rule. Or, it could be any combination of the above, or something I haven’t thought of. There’s also the troubling fact that Russia holds the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, which was almost captured when Russia’s Wagner Group briefly rebelled against Putin. I’m sure the highly-trained, battle-hardened Nazi militiamen are pretty angry at the United States right now, and thanks to us, they have every type of gun, bomb, and missile one can dream of. And, oh yeah, there’s now an entire group of recently-fired former CIA and USAID employees across the globe who are unhappy with the United States government. While I doubt there will be a mass-defection of intelligence operatives, all it takes is one to help any of the unsavory actors get their hands on nukes, bioweapons, or God-Only-Knows-What.

To recap, Ukraine is now a powder keg. The United States has spent the last eight years passing out matchbooks and is now floating the idea of regime changing its current (or former) ally as it pulls the plug out from under them. It’s a worst-case scenario, and Trump’s belief that America can wash our hands of this and create “peace” is dangerously naive.

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I’m sure some people will read this and defend the earlier support for Ukraine, claiming the current crisis is the fault of Donald Trump. But that’s precisely my point. Just like the war zones we flood with advanced weaponry, the United States is prone to quick changes, especially in the 21st century. Our political leaders come and go, change their minds (Trump was the first to send weapons to Ukraine, after all) and public support collapses in a single media cycle. Obama was right not to send American weapons in 2014, and Biden should have encouraged a unified European defense in 2022. Instead, he sought to repair the negative impact of the Afghanistan withdrawal by getting America into a “good war,” one the public could feel righteous in supporting. And I don’t mean to imply that supporting Ukraine’s plight isn’t virtuous. It is. Regardless of NATO encroachment, Putin decided to invade Ukraine in an attempt to reclaim a semblance of the Russian Empire. The final blame lies with him.

However, America’s belief that we are Superman, able to fly around the world and defeat The Bad Guys, is untrue. We tried it and failed in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq War #1, Iraq War #2, and countless other locations the American Empire has stuck its belligerent nose. The Biden Administration’s plan to continue funding the war to the cost of billions was never going to succeed, as it had no exit strategy. This was doubly stupid considering Donald Trump was rebounding and promising to settle scores when he returned to the White House. When the Congressional Progressive Caucus released a letter in fall of 2022 urging diplomatic solutions in tandem with military support, they were condemned by Republicans and Democrats alike, to the point that CPC leader Pramila Jayapal had to retract the letter.¹⁶ Neither Trump nor Biden has shown a clean exit strategy to America’s participation in this war because there isn’t one. You can’t unring a bell, just as you can’t de-radicalize Azov recruits or reclaim every surface-to-air missile in an active war zone. I don’t credit Trump for anything in this realm, as he’s given the worst answer to an impossible question. I hate to say it, but I doubt the U.S. government could fix the Ukraine problem even if it tried, and its too focused on checking the genitalia of middle school badminton players to give a second thought to the Russia-Ukraine War.

That said, it’s essential for Americans to remember the limits of our ability the next time we’re told we must get involved in a “good” war.

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1. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5169839-trump-zelensky-meeting-devastating/

2. https://www.csis.org/analysis/breaking-down-us-ukraine-minerals-deal

3. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-orders-pause-military-aid-ukraine-wake-last-weeks-oval-office-cl-rcna194627

4. https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-prove-america-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran/

5. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2002/03/23/from-us-the-abcs-of-jihad/d079075a-3ed3-4030-9a96-0d48f6355e54/

6. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-legacy-afghanistan-culture-guns-arbaki-police-drive-violence-n405736

7. https://www.congress.gov/116/meeting/house/110331/documents/HMKP-116-JU00-20191211-SD994.pdf

8. https://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/ukraine_18-02.pdf

9. https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/politics/us-ukraine-aid-biden/index.html

10. https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-hccc-worldhistory2/chapter/the-united-states-and-the-mujahideen/

11. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/05/13/azov-brigade-is-once-again-at-heart-of-fighting-in-donbas_6671268_4.html

12. https://www.yahoo.com/news/azov-regiment-expands-brigade-within-195700966.html

13. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-lifts-ban-on-providing-weapons-and-training-for-ukraines-controversial-azov-brigade

14. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment

15. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis

16. https://progressives.house.gov/_cache/files/5/5/5523c5cc-4028-4c46-8ee1-b56c7101c764/B7B3674EFB12D933EA4A2B97C7405DD4.10-24-22-cpc-letter-for-diplomacy-on-russia-ukraine-conflict.pdf